TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedTechnologySemiconductorsQuality
$388.78 · 15min delay
β 1.26A high-quality mega-cap compounder trading near fair value.
52-wk low $187.7252-wk high $420.00
Mkt Cap
$2.02T
P/E
—
PEG
1.28
P/B
59.47
Dividend
0.87%
ROE
36.2%
About the business
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Who would buy TSM?
Consensus 65/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
8 6 1
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Warren Buffett· Buffett Quality100/100
ROE > 15% 36.2% clears "> 15.0%".
- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100
ROE > 20% 36.2% clears "> 20.0%".
- Charlie Munger· Munger Elite Quality100/100
ROE > 25% (elite) 36.2% clears "> 25.0%".
Insider activity · Positive
2 insiders bought shares in the open market
Strength 85/100
Over the last ~6 months 2 different insiders made open-market purchases totalling $330K. Multi-insider open-market buying is one of the more durable positive signals because it reflects fresh-dollar conviction rather than vesting or diversification.
- Data is partial — fewer than 5 reported transactions.
- Very small sample (<3 transactions in window).
In Prism's context
Insider buying is welcome on any stock, but adds less incremental information on a quality name — management of durable compounders routinely hold large stakes and the thesis is usually already supported by operating results.
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIEN BOR-ZEN | Officer | Open-market buy | Apr 28, 2026 | 20 | $388.00 | $8K | Direct |
| BURNS URSULA M | Director | Open-market buy | Mar 31, 2026 | 1,000 | $322.05 | $322K | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.1% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +0 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
What would TSM do to your portfolio?
Add Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
TSM is currently tagged:QualityPartial match (65/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · TSM
TSM: 63% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 5 of 6 signal families positive (high confidence). Strongest support: 73% below fair value. Main risk to monitor: EPS miss (-7%).
Outperform prob.
63%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
+2.7% → +26.7%
mid +14.7% / yr
Downside (p20)
-17.2%
stress -34.3%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 85/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from ownership. Risk patterns shaved 2 points off the composite.
Composite
85
/ 100
Deep valueval.
50/ 100
P/B 59.47× · FCF yield 35.8%
Margin of safetyval.
100/ 100
73% below fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$1870.49
+36.9% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 58%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$1438.84
+29.9% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 58% operating margin holds, 35% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Technology. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | TSM | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 22.0× | — | 23.0× |
| P/B | 59.47× | 4.00× | — | 4.50× |
| Dividend yield | 0.87% | 1.00% | — | 1.40% |
| ROE | 36.2% |
Earnings reaction explainer
TSM missed by -6.6%.
Reported EPS $3.49 vs $3.74 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 58.1%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.
- Growth investorsNegative
Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.
- Value investorsNeutral
Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.
News & events
Next earnings
Thu, Jul 16 · consensus EPS $3.74 · last actual $3.49
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Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.28
P/B Ratio
59.47
EPS Growth
58.4%
Revenue Growth
35.1%
Debt / Equity
0.17
Net Cash / Share
$456.45
Return on Equity
36.2%
Gross Margin
61.9%
Operating Margin
58.1%
FCF / Share
$139.13
Current Ratio
2.49