TWLO
Twilio Inc.TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureGrowth at a Reasonable Price
$193.44 · 15min delay
β 1.32A steady large-cap growth-at-a-reasonable-price pick trading at a discounted valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $91.8452-wk high $203.71
Mkt Cap
$29.36B
P/E
—
PEG
0.38
P/B
3.78
Dividend
—
ROE
1.3%
About the business
Twilio Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides customer engagement platform solutions in the United States and internationally. The company provides various application programming interfaces and software solutions for communications between customers and end users, including messaging, voice, email, video interactions, digital engagement centers, marketing campaigns, and user authentication and identity solutions. It also offers software products to build direct and personalized relationships with their end users, such as Segment, a platform that provides tools to harness the power of contextual data by unifying real-time information collected throughout each customer's journey into a unique profile. Twilio Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Who would buy TWLO?
Consensus 33/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
3 9 3
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Peter Lynch· Lynch GARP88/100
PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) 0.38× clears "< 1.00×".
- Howard Marks· Marks Risk-First83/100
Debt/Equity < 0.5 0.14 clears "< 0.50".
- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income80/100
Payout Ratio < 70% 0.0% clears "< 70.0%".
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 55/100
4 insiders sold $141.7M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net sellers by 966,110 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Weak match).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROTTENBERG ERIKA | Director | Open-market sell | May 4, 2026 | 1,500 | $185.32 | $278K | Indirect |
| ROTTENBERG ERIKA | Director | Open-market sell | Apr 21, 2026 | 1,800 | $149.02 | $268K | Indirect |
| SHIPCHANDLER KHOZEMA | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 6, 2026 | 15,715 | $133.39 | $2.10M | Direct |
| VIGGIANO AIDAN | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 2, 2026 | 9,389 | $127.51 | $1.20M | Direct |
| SHIPCHANDLER KHOZEMA | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 31, 2026 | 12,624 | $122.81 | $1.55M | Direct |
| VIGGIANO AIDAN | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 31, 2026 | 8,231 | $122.79 | $1.01M | Direct |
| ROBINSON DOUGLAS A | Director | Award / grant | Mar 24, 2026 | 3,526 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| IMMELT JEFFREY R | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 703 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| EPSTEIN JEFFREY EMANUEL | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 951 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| PATRICK DEVAL L | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 673 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROTTENBERG ERIKA | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 686 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROTTENBERG ERIKA | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Mar 13, 2026 | 686 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DUBINSKY DONNA | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 673 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DUBINSKY DONNA | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Mar 13, 2026 | 673 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SUZUKI MIYUKI | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 682 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BELL CHARLES H | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 688 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| STAFMAN ANDREW J. | Director | Award / grant | Mar 13, 2026 | 688 | $0.00 | $0 | Indirect |
| VIGGIANO AIDAN | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 806 | $125.00 | $101K | Direct |
| SHIPCHANDLER KHOZEMA | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 20, 2026 | 70,100 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| VIGGIANO AIDAN | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 20, 2026 | 37,554 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| VIGGIANO AIDAN | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 17, 2026 | 1,023 | $110.66 | $113K | Direct |
| SHIPCHANDLER KHOZEMA | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 6, 2026 | 13,336 | $134.28 | $1.79M | Direct |
| VIGGIANO AIDAN | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 5, 2026 | 7,213 | $135.97 | $981K | Direct |
| SHIPCHANDLER KHOZEMA | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 31, 2025 | 13,266 | $143.37 | $1.90M | Direct |
| VIGGIANO AIDAN | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 31, 2025 | 8,109 | $143.38 | $1.16M | Direct |
| IMMELT JEFFREY R | Director | Award / grant | Dec 15, 2025 | 655 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| EPSTEIN JEFFREY EMANUEL | Director | Award / grant | Dec 15, 2025 | 885 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| PATRICK DEVAL L | Director | Award / grant | Dec 15, 2025 | 627 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROTTENBERG ERIKA | Director | Award / grant | Dec 15, 2025 | 639 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROTTENBERG ERIKA | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Dec 15, 2025 | 639 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DUBINSKY DONNA | Director | Award / grant | Dec 15, 2025 | 627 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DUBINSKY DONNA | Director | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Dec 15, 2025 | 627 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| SUZUKI MIYUKI | Director | Award / grant | Dec 15, 2025 | 635 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BELL CHARLES H | Director | Award / grant | Dec 15, 2025 | 641 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| STAFMAN ANDREW J. | Director | Award / grant | Dec 15, 2025 | 641 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| STAFMAN ANDREW J. | Director | Open-market sell | Dec 2, 2025 | 1,000,000 | $129.00 | $129.00M | Indirect |
| VIGGIANO AIDAN | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Nov 19, 2025 | 546 | $120.70 | $66K | Direct |
| VIGGIANO AIDAN | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Nov 17, 2025 | 1,514 | $123.28 | $187K | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.1% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: -966,110 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
What would TWLO do to your portfolio?
Add Twilio Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
TWLO is currently tagged:Growth at a Reasonable PriceWeak match (33/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Twilio Inc. · TWLO
TWLO: 50% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 3 of 6 signal families mixed (medium confidence). Strongest support: D/E 0.14. Main risk to monitor: 211% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
50%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-11.1% → +24.9%
mid +6.9% / yr
Downside (p20)
-15.8%
stress -31.7%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 49/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from ownership.
Composite
49
/ 100
Deep valueval.
61/ 100
P/B 3.78× · FCF yield 3.0%
Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100
211% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$80.84
-16.0% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 8%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$62.18
-20.3% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 8% operating margin and 20% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
Twilio Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Technology. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | TWLO | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 22.0× | — | 23.0× |
| P/B | 3.78× | 4.00× | — | 4.50× |
| Dividend yield | — | 1.00% | — | 1.40% |
| ROE | 1.3% |
Earnings reaction explainer
TWLO blew past estimates by 13.8%.
Reported EPS $1.50 vs $1.32 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 7.7%.
- Growth investorsPositive
Confirms operating leverage — 375% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.
- Quality investorsPositive
If ROE (1%) and operating margin (8%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.
- Value investorsNegative
Outsized beats on thin trailing quality often invite multiple expansion that doesn't survive the next print.
News & events
Next earnings
Thu, Apr 30 · consensus EPS $1.32 · last actual $1.50
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
0.38
P/B Ratio
3.78
EPS Growth
375.0%
Revenue Growth
20.0%
Debt / Equity
0.14
Net Cash / Share
$8.42
Return on Equity
1.3%
Gross Margin
48.7%
Operating Margin
7.7%
FCF / Share
$5.80
Current Ratio
4.66