
A steady mega-cap income stock trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
Mkt Cap
$358.09B
P/E
—
PEG
1.32
P/B
3.80
Dividend
2.30%
ROE
12.2%
About the business
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx; and UnitedHealthcare. The Optum Health segment provides care delivery, care management, wellness and consumer engagement, and health financial services with patients, consumers, care delivery systems, providers, employers, payers, and public-sector entities. The Optum Insight segment offers software and information products, advisory consulting arrangements, and managed services outsourcing contracts to hospital systems, physicians, health plans, public entities, life sciences companies and other organizations. The Optum Rx segment provides pharmacy care services and programs, including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty and community health pharmacy services, infusion, and purchasing and clinical capabilities, as well as develops programs in the areas of step therapy, formulary management, drug adherence, and disease and drug therapy management. The UnitedHealthcare segment offers consumer-oriented health benefit plans and services for national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, small businesses, and individuals; Medicaid plans, including Temporary Assistance to Needy Families; Children's Health Insurance Programs; Dual SNPs; Long-Term Services and Supports; Aged, Blind and Disabled; and other federal, state, and community health care programs. and health care benefits products and services to state programs caring for the economically disadvantaged, medically underserved, and those without the benefit of employer-funded health care coverage. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was founded in 1974 and is based in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.
Who would buy UNH?
Consensus 8/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
Endorses
· 1 frameworkDividend Yield > 2% 2.3% clears "> 2.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworksPEG < 1 (growth at a discount) is 1.32× — fails "< 1.00×".
1 insiders sold $284K on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 102,314 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D. | Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 23, 2026 | 800 | $355.00 | $284K | Direct |
| HOOPER MICHELE J. | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 206 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GOTTLIEB SCOTT | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 320 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BAKER CHARLES D | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 343 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MCNABB FREDERICK WILLIAM III | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 388 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GARCIA PAUL REU | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 343 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| NOSEWORTHY JOHN H | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 320 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MONTGOMERY RICE VALERIE C | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 343 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GIL KRISTEN | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 320 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK | Director | Award / grant | Apr 1, 2026 | 350 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DEVEYDT WAYNE S | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 149 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HOOPER MICHELE J. | Director | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 292 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GOTTLIEB SCOTT | Director | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BAKER CHARLES D | Director | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 14 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HEMSLEY STEPHEN J | Officer and Director | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 61 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MCNABB FREDERICK WILLIAM III | Director | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 64 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GARCIA PAUL REU | Director | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 16 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ZAETTA CHRISTOPHER R | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 89 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| NOEL TIMOTHY JOHN | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 102 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D. | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 125 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| NOSEWORTHY JOHN H | Director | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 52 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MONTGOMERY RICE VALERIE C | Director | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 53 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GIL KRISTEN | Director | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 8 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK | Director | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 79 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MCSWEENEY ERIN L | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 17, 2026 | 64 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DEVEYDT WAYNE S | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 23, 2026 | 8,855 | $282.34 | $2.50M | Direct |
| ZAETTA CHRISTOPHER R | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 23, 2026 | 7,084 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| NOEL TIMOTHY JOHN | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 23, 2026 | 8,855 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 23, 2026 | 8,855 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MCSWEENEY ERIN L | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 23, 2026 | 4,871 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROOS THOMAS E | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 23, 2026 | 2,436 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HOOPER MICHELE J. | Director | Award / grant | Jan 2, 2026 | 168 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GOTTLIEB SCOTT | Director | Award / grant | Jan 2, 2026 | 125 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BAKER CHARLES D | Director | Award / grant | Jan 2, 2026 | 279 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MCNABB FREDERICK WILLIAM III | Director | Award / grant | Jan 2, 2026 | 316 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GARCIA PAUL REU | Director | Award / grant | Jan 2, 2026 | 280 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| NOSEWORTHY JOHN H | Director | Award / grant | Jan 2, 2026 | 261 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MONTGOMERY RICE VALERIE C | Director | Award / grant | Jan 2, 2026 | 279 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| GIL KRISTEN | Director | Award / grant | Jan 2, 2026 | 168 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK | Director | Award / grant | Jan 2, 2026 | 285 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.8% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +102,314 sh
Price history
Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: Price near 52-week highs despite weak framework scores — market enthusiasm is running ahead of the fundamentals most legends look at.
Add UnitedHealth Group Incorporated at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
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Sign in to run this simulationUNH: 50% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families mixed (medium confidence). Strongest support: 100% through 52w range. Main risk to monitor: 82% above fair value.
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
P/B 3.80× · FCF yield 4.9%
82% above fair value
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 8% operating margin and 2% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Sector: Healthcare. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | UNH | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 24.0× | — | 20.0× |
| P/B | 3.80× | 4.80× | — | 3.80× |
| Dividend yield | 2.30% | 1.40% | — | 1.80% |
| ROE | 12.2% |
Reported EPS $7.23 vs $4.85 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 8.0%.
Confirms operating leverage — 1% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.
If ROE (12%) and operating margin (8%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.
Outsized beats on thin trailing quality often invite multiple expansion that doesn't survive the next print.
Next earnings
Tue, Jul 28 · consensus EPS $4.85 · last actual $7.23
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.32
P/B Ratio
3.80
EPS Growth
0.7%
Revenue Growth
2.0%
Debt / Equity
0.74
Net Cash / Share
$-51.41
Return on Equity
12.2%
Gross Margin
18.8%
Operating Margin
8.0%
FCF / Share
$19.48
Current Ratio
0.80
ROE > 20% is 12.2% — fails "> 20.0%".
Revenue Growth > 15% is 2.0% — fails "> 15.0%".
Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.
Quality is mixed — some strengths, some softness.
Leverage is high relative to coverage — balance-sheet risk on the table.
Price action is firm and trending higher.
Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.
Recent print + capital-return signal lean positive.
Among 96 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 50% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -0.1% / yr.
ROE 12% · Op margin 8%
D/E 0.74 · CR 0.80
Net selling — 1 insider
1 tracked holder · peak 3.8%
2.30% yield + buyback runway
100% through 52w range
EPS 1% · Rev 2%
Already-thin margins compress further on input-cost or pricing pressure; revenue softens; the market questions whether the current earnings power is structural or one-off. Multi-year drawdown plausible.
| 16.0% |
| — |
| 15.0% |
Institutional Own.
84.5%
Insider Own.
0.8%
Dividend Yield
2.30%
Book Value / Share
$103.87
Superinvestor ownership
Held by 1 tracked superinvestor · peak weight 1.7%
Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.