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UNH logo

UNH

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
HealthcareHealthcare PlansIncome
$394.31 · 15min delay
β 0.65

A steady mega-cap income stock trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.

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52-wk low $234.6052-wk high $394.92

Mkt Cap

$358.09B

P/E

—

PEG

1.32

P/B

3.80

Dividend

2.30%

ROE

12.2%

About the business

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx; and UnitedHealthcare. The Optum Health segment provides care delivery, care management, wellness and consumer engagement, and health financial services with patients, consumers, care delivery systems, providers, employers, payers, and public-sector entities. The Optum Insight segment offers software and information products, advisory consulting arrangements, and managed services outsourcing contracts to hospital systems, physicians, health plans, public entities, life sciences companies and other organizations. The Optum Rx segment provides pharmacy care services and programs, including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty and community health pharmacy services, infusion, and purchasing and clinical capabilities, as well as develops programs in the areas of step therapy, formulary management, drug adherence, and disease and drug therapy management. The UnitedHealthcare segment offers consumer-oriented health benefit plans and services for national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, small businesses, and individuals; Medicaid plans, including Temporary Assistance to Needy Families; Children's Health Insurance Programs; Dual SNPs; Long-Term Services and Supports; Aged, Blind and Disabled; and other federal, state, and community health care programs. and health care benefits products and services to state programs caring for the economically disadvantaged, medically underserved, and those without the benefit of employer-funded health care coverage. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was founded in 1974 and is based in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.

Who would buy UNH?

Consensus 8/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.

1 2 12

Endorses

· 1 framework
  • Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income88/100

    Dividend Yield > 2% 2.3% clears "> 2.0%".

Rejects

· 3 frameworks
  • Peter Lynch· Lynch GARP0/100

    PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) is 1.32× — fails "< 1.00×".

  • Joel Greenblatt
Insider activity · Negative

Insider selling outweighs buying

Strength 40/100

1 insiders sold $284K on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 102,314 shares.

In Prism's context

Insider selling is worth flagging but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons. Read alongside the framework verdict (Fails criteria).

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.OfficerOpen-market sellApr 23, 2026800$355.00$284KDirect
HOOPER MICHELE J.DirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026206$0.00$0Direct
GOTTLIEB SCOTTDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026320$0.00$0Direct
BAKER CHARLES DDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026343$0.00$0Direct
MCNABB FREDERICK WILLIAM IIIDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026388$0.00$0Direct
GARCIA PAUL REUDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026343$0.00$0Direct
NOSEWORTHY JOHN HDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026320$0.00$0Direct
MONTGOMERY RICE VALERIE CDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026343$0.00$0Direct
GIL KRISTENDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026320$0.00$0Direct
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICKDirectorAward / grantApr 1, 2026350$0.00$0Direct
DEVEYDT WAYNE SChief Financial OfficerAward / grantMar 17, 2026149$0.00$0Direct
HOOPER MICHELE J.DirectorAward / grantMar 17, 2026292$0.00$0Direct
GOTTLIEB SCOTTDirectorAward / grantMar 17, 20261$0.00$0Direct
BAKER CHARLES DDirectorAward / grantMar 17, 202614$0.00$0Direct
HEMSLEY STEPHEN JOfficer and DirectorAward / grantMar 17, 202661$0.00$0Direct
MCNABB FREDERICK WILLIAM IIIDirectorAward / grantMar 17, 202664$0.00$0Direct
GARCIA PAUL REUDirectorAward / grantMar 17, 202616$0.00$0Direct
ZAETTA CHRISTOPHER ROfficerAward / grantMar 17, 202689$0.00$0Direct
NOEL TIMOTHY JOHNOfficerAward / grantMar 17, 2026102$0.00$0Direct
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.OfficerAward / grantMar 17, 2026125$0.00$0Direct
NOSEWORTHY JOHN HDirectorAward / grantMar 17, 202652$0.00$0Direct
MONTGOMERY RICE VALERIE CDirectorAward / grantMar 17, 202653$0.00$0Direct
GIL KRISTENDirectorAward / grantMar 17, 20268$0.00$0Direct
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICKDirectorAward / grantMar 17, 202679$0.00$0Direct
MCSWEENEY ERIN LOfficerAward / grantMar 17, 202664$0.00$0Direct
DEVEYDT WAYNE SChief Financial OfficerAward / grantFeb 23, 20268,855$282.34$2.50MDirect
ZAETTA CHRISTOPHER ROfficerAward / grantFeb 23, 20267,084$0.00$0Direct
NOEL TIMOTHY JOHNOfficerAward / grantFeb 23, 20268,855$0.00$0Direct
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.OfficerAward / grantFeb 23, 20268,855$0.00$0Direct
MCSWEENEY ERIN LOfficerAward / grantFeb 23, 20264,871$0.00$0Direct
ROOS THOMAS EOfficerAward / grantFeb 23, 20262,436$0.00$0Direct
HOOPER MICHELE J.DirectorAward / grantJan 2, 2026168$0.00$0Direct
GOTTLIEB SCOTTDirectorAward / grantJan 2, 2026125$0.00$0Direct
BAKER CHARLES DDirectorAward / grantJan 2, 2026279$0.00$0Direct
MCNABB FREDERICK WILLIAM IIIDirectorAward / grantJan 2, 2026316$0.00$0Direct
GARCIA PAUL REUDirectorAward / grantJan 2, 2026280$0.00$0Direct
NOSEWORTHY JOHN HDirectorAward / grantJan 2, 2026261$0.00$0Direct
MONTGOMERY RICE VALERIE CDirectorAward / grantJan 2, 2026279$0.00$0Direct
GIL KRISTENDirectorAward / grantJan 2, 2026168$0.00$0Direct
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICKDirectorAward / grantJan 2, 2026285$0.00$0Direct

Showing 40 of 50 matching transactions.

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.8% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +102,314 sh

Price history

—
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.

What this means: Price near 52-week highs despite weak framework scores — market enthusiasm is running ahead of the fundamentals most legends look at.

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Peer comparison + AI read-through

See how this stock stacks up against its closest peers on valuation, growth, and returns — with a written peer summary.

What would UNH do to your portfolio?

Add UnitedHealth Group Incorporated at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

UNH is currently tagged:IncomeFails criteria (8/100)

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated · UNH

UNH: 50% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families mixed (medium confidence). Strongest support: 100% through 52w range. Main risk to monitor: 82% above fair value.

Outperform prob.
50%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
medium confidence
Expected return
-5.3% → +18.7%
mid +6.7% / yr
Downside (p20)
-7.8%
stress -15.5%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 49/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from quality.

Composite
49
/ 100
Stretched
Deep valueval.
67/ 100

P/B 3.80× · FCF yield 4.9%

Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100

82% above fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~20%
$280.99
-6.6% / yr (5y)

A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 8%
  • • Stranded asset value crystallises
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%
$216.15
-11.3% / yr (5y)

No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 8% operating margin and 2% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.

Global value comparison

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Healthcare. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricUNHGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—24.0×—20.0×
P/B3.80×4.80×—3.80×
Dividend yield2.30%1.40%—1.80%
ROE12.2%
Earnings reaction explainer

UNH blew past estimates by 49.0%.

Big beat· +49.0%

Reported EPS $7.23 vs $4.85 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 8.0%.

  • Growth investorsPositive

    Confirms operating leverage — 1% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.

  • Quality investorsPositive

    If ROE (12%) and operating margin (8%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.

  • Value investorsNegative

    Outsized beats on thin trailing quality often invite multiple expansion that doesn't survive the next print.

News & events

Next earnings

Tue, Jul 28 · consensus EPS $4.85 · last actual $7.23

  • Will UnitedHealth's New Optum Rx Model Boost PBM Pricing Transparency?

    Zacks · just now

  • The Zacks Analyst Blog UnitedHealth, Merck & Co., Qualcomm, EVI and Optex

    Zacks · just now

  • This 1 Insane Nvidia Stat Explains Why Wall Street Can’t Stop Buying the Stock

    24/7 Wall St. · just now

Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

1.32

P/B Ratio

3.80

EPS Growth

0.7%

Revenue Growth

2.0%

Debt / Equity

0.74

Net Cash / Share

$-51.41

Return on Equity

12.2%

Gross Margin

18.8%

Operating Margin

8.0%

FCF / Share

$19.48

Current Ratio

0.80

· Magic Formula
0/100

ROE > 20% is 12.2% — fails "> 20.0%".

  • Philip Fisher· Fisher Growth0/100

    Revenue Growth > 15% is 2.0% — fails "> 15.0%".

  • See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
    Prism Score
    49/100
    Medium-Low agreement
    Signal families · 2 of 6 signal families mixed
    Agreement: Medium-Low
    • Valuationnegative

      Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.

      82% above fair value
      25
      /100
    • Qualityneutral

      Quality is mixed — some strengths, some softness.

      ROE 12%
      54
      /100
    • Balance sheetnegative

      Leverage is high relative to coverage — balance-sheet risk on the table.

      CR 0.80 (tight)
      40
      /100
    • Momentumpositive

      Price action is firm and trending higher.

      100% through 52w range
      60
      /100
    • Behaviouralneutral

      Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.

      1 tracked holders · peak 3.8%
      54
      /100
    • Catalysts & eventspositive

      Recent print + capital-return signal lean positive.

      Big EPS beat (+49%)
      62
      /100
    Positive drivers
    • • 100% through 52w range
    • • Big EPS beat (+49%)
    Key risks
    • • 82% above fair value
    • • CR 0.80 (tight)
    Suggested diligence questions
    • 1. What would invalidate the thesis if it appeared in the next earnings print?
    Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

    Among 96 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 50% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -0.1% / yr.

    Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
    View full thesis
    Quality20%
    27/ 100

    ROE 12% · Op margin 8%

    Balance sheet15%
    64/ 100

    D/E 0.74 · CR 0.80

    Insider convictionown.
    80/ 100

    Net selling — 1 insider

    Superinvestorown.
    65/ 100

    1 tracked holder · peak 3.8%

    Shareholder yield10%
    78/ 100

    2.30% yield + buyback runway

    Momentum5%
    100/ 100

    100% through 52w range

    Growth5%
    43/ 100

    EPS 1% · Rev 2%

    Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

    Customise weights
    Drivers
    • • Revenue growth holds near 2%
    • • Operating margin stays around 8%
    • • No major balance-sheet surprises
    Bear
    ~35%
    $162.11
    -16.3% / yr (5y)

    Already-thin margins compress further on input-cost or pricing pressure; revenue softens; the market questions whether the current earnings power is structural or one-off. Multi-year drawdown plausible.

    Drivers
    • • Operating margin compresses 200–400 bps
    • • Multiple compresses as estimates roll back
    • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
    Indicative weights
    16.0%
    —
    15.0%

    Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

    What to watch on the next print
    • • Whether margin expansion sustains into next quarter
    • • Forward guidance update — beats without raises tend to fade
  • Optum Rx Pricing Shift Puts New Focus On UnitedHealth Group Valuation

    Simply Wall St. · just now

  • Optum Rx shifts to fee-based PBM model in bid to boost transparency

    Healthcare Dive · just now

  • Top Research Reports for UnitedHealth, Merck & Qualcomm

    Zacks · just now

  • Institutional Own.

    84.5%

    Insider Own.

    0.8%

    Dividend Yield

    2.30%

    Book Value / Share

    $103.87

    Superinvestor ownership

    Held by 1 tracked superinvestor · peak weight 1.7%

    Grand Portfolio
    • Joel Greenblatt

      Gotham Asset Management · Q4 2025

      1.7%

    Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.