USB
U.S. BancorpFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalValue
$54.59 · 15min delay
β 1.02A steady large-cap business trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $42.2152-wk high $61.19
Mkt Cap
$84.75B
P/E
—
PEG
1.90
P/B
1.45
Dividend
3.78%
ROE
12.4%
About the business
U.S. Bancorp, a financial services holding company, provides various financial services to individuals, businesses, institutional organizations, governmental entities, and other financial institutions in the United States. The company operates through Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking; Consumer and Business Banking; Payment Services; and Treasury and Corporate Support segments. It offers depository services, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and time certificate contracts; and lending services, such as traditional credit products and credit card services, lease financing and import/export trade, agricultural finance, asset-backed lending, and other products. The company also provides cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services; and ancillary services comprising capital markets, treasury management, and receivable lock-box collection services to corporate and governmental entity customers. In addition, it offers asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations, and charitable organizations; and investment and insurance products to its customers principally within its domestic markets, as well as fund administration services to mutual and other funds. Further, the company provides corporate and purchasing card, and corporate trust services; and credit card services, merchant and ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage and leasing services. U.S. Bancorp was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Who would buy USB?
Consensus 23/100 · Polarized · Investors strongly disagree — this is where Prism is most useful.
3 3 9
Endorses
· 3 frameworks- Benjamin Graham· Graham Defensive100/100
P/B < 1.5 1.45× clears "< 1.50×".
- Fama / French· Pure Value Factor100/100
P/B < 1.5 1.45× clears "< 1.50×".
- Dividend Growth School· Dividend Income100/100
Dividend Yield > 2% 3.8% clears "> 2.0%".
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 55/100
4 insiders sold $7.2M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 581,738 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a cheap or stressed name is a more meaningful negative than on a compounder — the people closest to the business are not voting with their wallets. Weigh this against the framework verdict (Fails criteria).
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DILIP VENKATACHARI | Chief Technology Officer | Open-market sell | May 5, 2026 | 34,522 | $55.52 | $1.92M | Direct |
| RICHARD JODI L | Officer | Open-market sell | Apr 21, 2026 | 40,000 | $57.00 | $2.28M | Direct |
| BARCELOS ELCIO R.T. | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 22,259 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BADRAN SOUHEIL | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 19,291 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| STERN JOHN C. | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 25,227 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DILIP VENKATACHARI | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 17,807 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| PHILIPSON STEPHEN L. | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 28,195 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KELSO COURTNEY | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 13,356 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| ROY ARIJIT | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 13,356 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RICHARD JODI L | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 29,679 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| STARK LISA R | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 15,767 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KEDIA GUNJAN | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 100,167 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RUNKEL MARK G | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 13,356 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CHOSY JAMES L | General Counsel | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 22,259 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BARCELOS ELCIO R.T. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 11, 2026 | 32,323 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BADRAN SOUHEIL | Chief Operating Officer | Award / grant | Feb 11, 2026 | 34,526 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RICHARD JODI L | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 11, 2026 | 41,138 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| KEDIA GUNJAN | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 11, 2026 | 51,423 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RUNKEL MARK G | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 11, 2026 | 19,099 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CECERE ANDREW J | Director | Award / grant | Feb 11, 2026 | 154,269 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| CHOSY JAMES L | General Counsel | Award / grant | Feb 11, 2026 | 32,323 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| RUNKEL MARK G | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 6, 2026 | 15,339 | $55.01 | $844K | Direct |
| RUNKEL MARK G | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 6, 2026 | 32,195 | $60.65 | $1.95M | Direct |
| CHOSY JAMES L | General Counsel | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Feb 3, 2026 | 4,500 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BARCELOS ELCIO R.T. | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 3, 2026 | 17,204 | $58.43 | $1.01M | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.1% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +581,738 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: A significant rerating — the valuation-sensitive frameworks below will have tightened since this move.
What would USB do to your portfolio?
Add U.S. Bancorp at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
USB is currently tagged:ValueFails criteria (23/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
U.S. Bancorp · USB
USB: 58% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families positive (medium confidence). Strongest support: 21% below fair value.
Outperform prob.
58%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
+0.1% → +24.1%
mid +12.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-12.2%
stress -24.4%
Data quality
90/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 72/100. Strongest contribution from valuation; weakest from quality.
Composite
72
/ 100
Deep valueval.
93/ 100
P/B 1.45×
Margin of safetyval.
81/ 100
21% below fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~20%$90.03
+10.5% / yr (5y)
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 38%
- • Stranded asset value crystallises
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%$69.25
+4.9% / yr (5y)
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. 38% operating margin and 5% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Global value comparison
U.S. Bancorp vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Financial Services. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | USB | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 11.2× | 8.5× | 11.5× |
| P/B | 1.45× | 1.70× | 1.20× | 1.30× |
| Dividend yield | 3.78% | 4.60% | 4.20% | 4.00% |
| ROE | 12.4% |
Earnings reaction explainer
USB missed by -6.2%.
Reported EPS $1.18 vs $1.26 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 37.8%.
- Quality investorsNegative
A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.
- Growth investorsNegative
Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.
- Value investorsNeutral
Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.
News & events
Next earnings
Thu, Jul 16 · consensus EPS $1.26 · last actual $1.18
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Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.90
P/B Ratio
1.45
EPS Growth
14.8%
Revenue Growth
4.6%
Debt / Equity
N/A
Net Cash / Share
$-19.14
Return on Equity
12.4%
Gross Margin
0.0%
Operating Margin
37.8%
FCF / Share
N/A
Current Ratio
N/A