VST
Vistra Corp.UtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersQuality
$146.91 · 15min delay
β 1.45A high-quality large-cap compounder trading near fair value. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
52-wk low $138.5352-wk high $219.82
Mkt Cap
$49.53B
P/E
—
PEG
1.27
P/B
18.95
Dividend
0.60%
ROE
42.9%
About the business
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
Who would buy VST?
Consensus 19/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
1 7 7
Endorses
· 1 framework- Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula100/100
ROE > 20% 42.9% clears "> 20.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworks- Walter Schloss· Schloss Deep Value0/100
P/B < 1.0 (below book) is 18.95× — fails "< 1.00×".
- Seth Klarman
Insider activity · Negative
Insider selling outweighs buying
Strength 55/100
4 insiders sold $29.9M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 1,085,180 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a mature quality name is often compensation-driven and should not over-rotate a thesis built on durable cash flows — though concentrated discretionary selling is always worth flagging.
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOORE STEPHANIE ZAPATA | General Counsel | Open-market sell | Mar 9, 2026 | 10,000 | $160.31 | $1.60M | Direct |
| DORE STACEY H. | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 12,855 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MOORE STEPHANIE ZAPATA | General Counsel | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 5,356 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| HUDSON SCOTT A | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 6,106 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BURKE JAMES A. | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 28,281 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MONTEMAYOR MARGARET M. | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 1,989 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MOLDOVAN KRISTOPHER E. | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Mar 5, 2026 | 10,712 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| DORE STACEY H. | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 134,444 | $171.62 | $23.07M | Direct |
| KIRBY CARRIE LEE | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 79,444 | $171.62 | $13.63M | Direct |
| MOORE STEPHANIE ZAPATA | General Counsel | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 79,444 | $171.62 | $13.63M | Direct |
| HUDSON SCOTT A | Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 117,332 | $171.62 | $20.14M | Direct |
| BURKE JAMES A. | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 320,000 | $171.62 | $54.92M | Direct |
| MOLDOVAN KRISTOPHER E. | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Feb 24, 2026 | 136,888 | $171.62 | $23.49M | Direct |
| BURKE JAMES A. | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Dec 12, 2025 | 50,000 | $14.03 | $702K | Direct |
| BURKE JAMES A. | Chief Executive Officer | Option exercise | Dec 12, 2025 | 50,000 | $14.03 | $702K | Direct |
| BURKE JAMES A. | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 11, 2025 | 22,251 | $162.05 | $3.61M | Direct |
| BURKE JAMES A. | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Dec 11, 2025 | 22,251 | $162.05 | $3.61M | Direct |
| BURKE JAMES A. | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Dec 11, 2025 | 27,745 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| BURKE JAMES A. | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Dec 11, 2025 | 27,745 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MOORE STEPHANIE ZAPATA | General Counsel | Stock Gift at price 0.00 per share. | Nov 28, 2025 | 3,602 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| MOORE STEPHANIE ZAPATA | General Counsel | Open-market sell | Nov 24, 2025 | 8,219 | $173.35 | $1.42M | Direct |
| HUDSON SCOTT A | Officer | Option exercise | Nov 14, 2025 | 56,000 | $19.68 | $1.10M | Direct |
| KIRBY CARRIE LEE | Officer | Option exercise | Nov 14, 2025 | 58,275 | $22.98 | $1.34M | Direct |
| HUDSON SCOTT A | Officer | Open-market sell | Nov 14, 2025 | 56,000 | $168.86 | $9.46M | Direct |
| KIRBY CARRIE LEE | Officer | Open-market sell | Nov 14, 2025 | 58,275 | $174.75 | $10.18M | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.8% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +1,085,180 sh
Price history
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: Price near 52-week lows confirms what most frameworks are already flagging: the market is discounting deteriorating fundamentals.
What would VST do to your portfolio?
Add Vistra Corp. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Risk metrics
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
Sector concentration
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Archetype tilt
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
VST is currently tagged:QualityFails criteria (19/100)
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationProbabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04
Vistra Corp. · VST
VST: 39% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (low confidence). Strongest support: ROE 43%. Main risk to monitor: 43% above fair value.
Outperform prob.
39%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
Expected return
-3.9% → +20.1%
mid +8.1% / yr
Downside (p20)
-32.4%
stress -55.0%
Data quality
95/100
Excellent
Prism Score
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
Prism Score
Composite 37/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 8 points off the composite.
Composite
37
/ 100
Deep valueval.
23/ 100
P/B 18.95× · FCF yield 1.0%
Margin of safetyval.
17/ 100
43% above fair value
Bull · base · bear scenarios
Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Bull
~25%$133.93
-1.8% / yr (5y)
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Drivers
- • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 27%
- • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
- • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%$103.03
-6.9% / yr (5y)
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 27% operating margin holds, 43% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Global value comparison
Vistra Corp. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.
Sector: Utilities. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | VST | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 13.0× | — | 14.0× |
| P/B | 18.95× | 1.60× | — | 1.60× |
| Dividend yield | 0.60% | 4.80% | — | 4.60% |
| ROE | 42.9% |
Earnings reaction explainer
VST blew past estimates by 10.8%.
Reported EPS $2.87 vs $2.59 expected — well outside the normal beat-and-raise band. The market typically rewards a print this size only if it is read as durable, not one-off. Trailing operating margin: 26.6%.
- Growth investorsPositive
Confirms operating leverage — 0% trailing EPS growth + a beat of this size is the pattern that drives multi-year re-rates.
- Quality investorsPositive
If ROE (43%) and operating margin (27%) are stable or rising, the beat is consistent with compounding rather than one-off.
- Value investorsNeutral
A blow-out can pull future quarters forward — value investors will look for sustained margin, not a single-quarter spike.
News & events
Next earnings
Thu, Aug 6 · consensus EPS $2.59 · last actual $2.87
Vistra Expands Gas Capacity And Data Center Ties With AI Power Deals
Simply Wall St. · just now
Vistra Corp. (VST) – Among the 10 Best Robinhood Stocks to Buy According to Billionaires
Insider Monkey · just now
Goldman Sachs Adjusts Vistra Price Target to $209 From $212, Maintains Buy Rating
MT Newswires · just now
Key Metrics at a Glance
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.27
P/B Ratio
18.95
EPS Growth
N/A
Revenue Growth
43.4%
Debt / Equity
3.55
Net Cash / Share
$-57.14
Return on Equity
42.9%
Gross Margin
38.6%
Operating Margin
26.6%
FCF / Share
$1.41
Current Ratio
0.90