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WFG logo

WFG

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.
Basic MaterialsLumber & Wood ProductionCyclical
$60.77 · 15min delay
β 1.09

A challenged mid-cap cyclical with limited valuation data. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.

Download report

52-wk low $57.3452-wk high $78.55

Mkt Cap

$4.76B

P/E

—

PEG

—

P/B

0.84

Dividend

2.11%

ROE

-18.6%

About the business

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd., a diversified wood products company, engages in manufacturing, selling, marketing, and distributing lumber, engineered wood products, northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, newsprint, paper, wood chips and other residuals. It operates through four segments: Lumber, North America Engineered Wood Products, Pulp & Paper, and Europe Engineered Wood Products. The Lumber segment produces spruce, pine, fir and southern yellow pine lumber, douglas fir, hemlock, wood chips, and other residuals. The North America Engineered Wood Products segment manufactures oriented strand board, laminated veneer lumber, medium-density fibreboard, plywood, and particleboard, with OSB products marketed under brands such as Durastrand pointSIX, Pinnacle Stabledge, TruFlor pointSIX and TruFlor, Rimboard, SteadiTred, QuakeZone, Windstorm, TallWall and Trubord, and SolarBord, Trubord, TruDeck, StableDeck and StableWall, DuraSmart, Stable RVand NorCore; and MDF products under Ranger, WestPine, and EcoGold. The Pulp & Paper segment produces northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK), newsprint, and bleached chemithermomechanical pulp used to produce various paper products, including printing and writing papers, paper products, and tissue. The Europe Engineered Wood Products segment produces OSB, particleboard, and MDF applications including cabinet doors, mouldings and interior wall paneling under the SterlingOSB Zero, CaberFloor, and CaberMDF brands. It also provides bioenergy and green raw materials. Its products are used in home construction, repair and remodeling, paper, tissue, and box materials, and industrial applications. It sells its products to major retail chains, dealers, contractor supply yards, and wholesalers, as well as industrial customers for further processing or as components for other products in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, and internationally. The company was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Who would buy WFG?

Consensus 17/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.

1 5 9

Endorses

· 1 framework
  • Walter Schloss· Schloss Deep Value86/100

    P/B < 1.0 (below book) 0.84× clears "< 1.00×".

Rejects

· 3 frameworks
  • Joel Greenblatt· Magic Formula0/100

    ROE > 20% is -18.6% — fails "> 20.0%".

  • AQR / Asness
Insider activity · Positive

3 insiders bought shares in the open market

Strength 95/100

Over the last ~6 months 3 different insiders made open-market purchases totalling $573K. Multi-insider open-market buying is one of the more durable positive signals because it reflects fresh-dollar conviction rather than vesting or diversification.

In Prism's context

Insider buying on a cyclical is notable — buying into a potential turn is a classic "they see something in the pipeline" signal, though it can also be early. Combine with operating-momentum and credit indicators.

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
Tobin (Matthew Vincent)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionMar 30, 2026841——Indirect
Tobin (Matthew Vincent)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionMar 30, 2026841——Indirect
Burke (Kevin John)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionDec 31, 2025275——Indirect
Lampard, Robin E ASenior Officer of IssuerTransactionDec 31, 202591——Indirect
Mclaren, Sean PeterDirector of IssuerTransactionDec 31, 2025225——Indirect
Tobin (Matthew Vincent)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionDec 31, 2025841——Direct
Tobin (Matthew Vincent)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionDec 31, 2025841——Indirect
Tobin (Matthew Vincent)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionDec 31, 2025182——Indirect
Virostek (Christopher A)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionDec 31, 2025204——Indirect
Tobin (Matthew Vincent)Senior Officer of IssuerOpen-market buyDec 16, 202515$60.33$905Indirect
Tobin (Matthew Vincent)Senior Officer of IssuerOpen-market buyDec 16, 202525$60.64$2KIndirect
Tobin (Matthew Vincent)Senior Officer of IssuerTransactionDec 16, 2025841——Direct
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.IssuerTransactionDec 1, 20254,125——Direct
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.IssuerOpen-market buyNov 25, 20254,125$60.23$248KDirect
Virostek (Christopher A)Senior Officer of IssuerOpen-market buyNov 20, 20251,250$58.29$73KDirect
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.IssuerTransactionNov 17, 20257,220——Direct
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.IssuerOpen-market buyNov 14, 20254,120$60.46$249KDirect

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 32.3% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +0 sh

Price history

—
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Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.

What this means: Price near 52-week lows confirms what most frameworks are already flagging: the market is discounting deteriorating fundamentals.

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Peer comparison + AI read-through

See how this stock stacks up against its closest peers on valuation, growth, and returns — with a written peer summary.

What would WFG do to your portfolio?

Add West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

WFG is currently tagged:CyclicalFails criteria (17/100)

Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. · WFG

WFG: 45% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families negative (low confidence). Strongest support: 16% below fair value. Main risk to monitor: ROE -19% (weak).

Outperform prob.
45%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
low confidence
Expected return
-8.8% → +27.2%
mid +9.2% / yr
Downside (p20)
-18.1%
stress -36.1%
Data quality
75/100
Good

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 46/100. Strongest contribution from ownership; weakest from quality. Risk patterns shaved 4 points off the composite.

Composite
46
/ 100
Stretched
Deep valueval.
50/ 100

P/B 0.84× · FCF yield -8.0%

Margin of safetyval.
76/ 100

16% below fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~20%
$93.60
+9.0% / yr (5y)

A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from -16%
  • • Stranded asset value crystallises
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~45%
$72.00
+3.5% / yr (5y)

No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. -16% operating margin and -9% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.

Global value comparison

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Basic Materials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricWFGGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—13.5×—12.5×
P/B0.84×1.90×—1.50×
Dividend yield2.11%3.80%—3.40%
ROE-18.6%
Earnings reaction explainer

WFG missed materially — -404.9% below consensus.

Big miss· -404.9%

Reported EPS $-2.40 vs $-0.48 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: -15.8%.

  • Quality investorsNegative

    A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.

  • Growth investorsNegative

    Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.

  • Value investorsNegative

    Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.

News & events

Next earnings

Wed, Jul 29 · consensus EPS $-0.48 · last actual $-2.40

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Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

N/A

P/B Ratio

0.84

EPS Growth

N/A

Revenue Growth

-8.6%

Debt / Equity

0.10

Net Cash / Share

$-6.01

Return on Equity

-18.6%

Gross Margin

21.5%

Operating Margin

-15.8%

FCF / Share

$-5.01

Current Ratio

1.84

· Quality Factor
17/100

ROE > 20% is -18.6% — fails "> 20.0%".

  • William O'Neil· Momentum / CAN SLIM17/100

    Within 15% of 52-wk high is -22.6% — fails "> -15.0%".

  • See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
    Prism Score
    46/100
    Low agreement
    Signal families · 2 of 6 signal families negative
    Agreement: Low
    • Valuationpositive

      Trades materially below the fair-value range — historically a tailwind for forward returns.

      16% below fair value
      62
      /100
    • Qualitynegative

      Returns are sub-cost-of-capital; quality bar not met.

      ROE -19% (weak)Op margin -16% (thin)
      24
      /100
    • Balance sheetneutral

      Capital structure is unremarkable — neither a stress nor a tailwind.

      D/E 0.10CR 1.84Thin interest coverage
      58
      /100
    • Momentumnegative

      Price has been weak — momentum is a headwind.

      Near 52w lows (16%)
      40
      /100
    • Behaviouralpositive

      Insiders and / or superinvestors are accumulating — informed-money tailwind.

      3 insiders buying2 tracked holders · peak 27.1%Short ratio 8.4d (elevated)
      70
      /100
    • Catalysts & eventsnegative

      Recent miss and / or risk patterns weigh on the catalyst path.

      Big EPS miss (-405%)1 high-severity flag
      22
      /100
    Positive drivers
    • • 16% below fair value
    • • 3 insiders buying
    • • 2 tracked holders · peak 27.1%
    • • Short ratio 8.4d (elevated)
    Key risks
    • • ROE -19% (weak)
    • • Op margin -16% (thin)
    • • Near 52w lows (16%)
    • • Big EPS miss (-405%)
    • • 1 high-severity flag
    • • Dilution risk if cash burn continues
    Suggested diligence questions
    • 1. Is the valuation discount durable, or is the market pricing in deteriorating fundamentals?
    • 2. Is insider buying coming from operators with informed perspective on near-term results?
    • 3. Quarterly burn vs guidance
    Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

    Among 95 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 48% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -0.8% / yr.

    Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
    View full thesis
    Quality20%
    1/ 100

    ROE -19% · Op margin -16%

    Balance sheet15%
    91/ 100

    D/E 0.10 · CR 1.84

    Insider convictionown.
    68/ 100

    3 insiders buying

    Superinvestorown.
    83/ 100

    2 tracked holders · peak 27.1%

    Shareholder yield10%
    44/ 100

    2.11% yield

    Momentum5%
    33/ 100

    16% through 52w range

    Growth5%
    19/ 100

    EPS — · Rev -9%

    Risk deduction: 1 pattern flagged · dilution risk if cash burn continues. 4 points removed from composite.

    Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

    Customise weights
    Drivers
    • • Revenue growth holds near -9%
    • • Operating margin stays around -16%
    • • No major balance-sheet surprises
    Bear
    ~35%
    $54.00
    -2.3% / yr (5y)

    Already-thin margins compress further on input-cost or pricing pressure; revenue softens; the market questions whether the current earnings power is structural or one-off. Multi-year drawdown plausible.

    Drivers
    • • Operating margin compresses 200–400 bps
    • • Multiple compresses as estimates roll back
    • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
    Indicative weights
    12.0%
    —
    11.0%

    Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

    What to watch on the next print
    • • Management explanation of cause — one-off vs structural
    • • Analyst-revision direction over the next 1-2 weeks
    • • Dividend coverage commentary
  • West Fraser Timber Q1 Earnings Call Highlights

    MarketBeat · just now

  • West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd (WFG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with ...

    GuruFocus.com · just now

  • West Fraser Announces First Quarter 2026 Results

    PR Newswire · just now

  • Institutional Own.

    59.2%

    Insider Own.

    32.3%

    Dividend Yield

    2.11%

    Book Value / Share

    $72.00

    Superinvestor ownership

    Held by 2 tracked superinvestors · peak weight 9.8%

    Grand Portfolio
    • Mohnish Pabrai

      Pabrai Investment Funds · Q4 2025

      9.8%
    • Murray Stahl

      Horizon Kinetics · Q4 2025

      6.1%

    Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.