
A challenged mid-cap cyclical with limited valuation data. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
Mkt Cap
$4.76B
P/E
—
PEG
—
P/B
0.84
Dividend
2.11%
ROE
-18.6%
About the business
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd., a diversified wood products company, engages in manufacturing, selling, marketing, and distributing lumber, engineered wood products, northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, newsprint, paper, wood chips and other residuals. It operates through four segments: Lumber, North America Engineered Wood Products, Pulp & Paper, and Europe Engineered Wood Products. The Lumber segment produces spruce, pine, fir and southern yellow pine lumber, douglas fir, hemlock, wood chips, and other residuals. The North America Engineered Wood Products segment manufactures oriented strand board, laminated veneer lumber, medium-density fibreboard, plywood, and particleboard, with OSB products marketed under brands such as Durastrand pointSIX, Pinnacle Stabledge, TruFlor pointSIX and TruFlor, Rimboard, SteadiTred, QuakeZone, Windstorm, TallWall and Trubord, and SolarBord, Trubord, TruDeck, StableDeck and StableWall, DuraSmart, Stable RVand NorCore; and MDF products under Ranger, WestPine, and EcoGold. The Pulp & Paper segment produces northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK), newsprint, and bleached chemithermomechanical pulp used to produce various paper products, including printing and writing papers, paper products, and tissue. The Europe Engineered Wood Products segment produces OSB, particleboard, and MDF applications including cabinet doors, mouldings and interior wall paneling under the SterlingOSB Zero, CaberFloor, and CaberMDF brands. It also provides bioenergy and green raw materials. Its products are used in home construction, repair and remodeling, paper, tissue, and box materials, and industrial applications. It sells its products to major retail chains, dealers, contractor supply yards, and wholesalers, as well as industrial customers for further processing or as components for other products in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, and internationally. The company was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Who would buy WFG?
Consensus 17/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
Endorses
· 1 frameworkP/B < 1.0 (below book) 0.84× clears "< 1.00×".
Rejects
· 3 frameworksROE > 20% is -18.6% — fails "> 20.0%".
Over the last ~6 months 3 different insiders made open-market purchases totalling $573K. Multi-insider open-market buying is one of the more durable positive signals because it reflects fresh-dollar conviction rather than vesting or diversification.
In Prism's context
Insider buying on a cyclical is notable — buying into a potential turn is a classic "they see something in the pipeline" signal, though it can also be early. Combine with operating-momentum and credit indicators.
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobin (Matthew Vincent) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Transaction | Mar 30, 2026 | 841 | — | — | Indirect |
| Tobin (Matthew Vincent) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Transaction | Mar 30, 2026 | 841 | — | — | Indirect |
| Burke (Kevin John) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Transaction | Dec 31, 2025 | 275 | — | — | Indirect |
| Lampard, Robin E A | Senior Officer of Issuer | Transaction | Dec 31, 2025 | 91 | — | — | Indirect |
| Mclaren, Sean Peter | Director of Issuer | Transaction | Dec 31, 2025 | 225 | — | — | Indirect |
| Tobin (Matthew Vincent) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Transaction | Dec 31, 2025 | 841 | — | — | Direct |
| Tobin (Matthew Vincent) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Transaction | Dec 31, 2025 | 841 | — | — | Indirect |
| Tobin (Matthew Vincent) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Transaction | Dec 31, 2025 | 182 | — | — | Indirect |
| Virostek (Christopher A) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Transaction | Dec 31, 2025 | 204 | — | — | Indirect |
| Tobin (Matthew Vincent) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Open-market buy | Dec 16, 2025 | 15 | $60.33 | $905 | Indirect |
| Tobin (Matthew Vincent) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Open-market buy | Dec 16, 2025 | 25 | $60.64 | $2K | Indirect |
| Tobin (Matthew Vincent) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Transaction | Dec 16, 2025 | 841 | — | — | Direct |
| West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | Issuer | Transaction | Dec 1, 2025 | 4,125 | — | — | Direct |
| West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | Issuer | Open-market buy | Nov 25, 2025 | 4,125 | $60.23 | $248K | Direct |
| Virostek (Christopher A) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Open-market buy | Nov 20, 2025 | 1,250 | $58.29 | $73K | Direct |
| West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | Issuer | Transaction | Nov 17, 2025 | 7,220 | — | — | Direct |
| West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | Issuer | Open-market buy | Nov 14, 2025 | 4,120 | $60.46 | $249K | Direct |
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 32.3% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +0 sh
Price history
Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
What this means: Price near 52-week lows confirms what most frameworks are already flagging: the market is discounting deteriorating fundamentals.
Add West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationWFG: 45% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 2 of 6 signal families negative (low confidence). Strongest support: 16% below fair value. Main risk to monitor: ROE -19% (weak).
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
P/B 0.84× · FCF yield -8.0%
16% below fair value
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
A turnaround takes hold: margin recovers toward peer averages, revenue stabilises, and the market re-prices the asset value rather than the running earnings.
No deterioration, no surprise re-acceleration. -16% operating margin and -9% top-line growth chug along; the multiple slowly converges to the central fair-value estimate.
Sector: Basic Materials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | WFG | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 13.5× | — | 12.5× |
| P/B | 0.84× | 1.90× | — | 1.50× |
| Dividend yield | 2.11% | 3.80% | — | 3.40% |
| ROE | -18.6% |
Reported EPS $-2.40 vs $-0.48 expected — a material miss. The bar of the next two prints will be lower, but the multiple that was bid up to today's level usually does not survive an unexplained shortfall this size. Trailing operating margin: -15.8%.
A material miss is incompatible with a quality-compounder narrative until proven otherwise. Two more prints needed before that label is restored.
Multiple compression typically follows. The risk is not the miss itself, it's that consensus needs to re-rate forward estimates lower.
Even cheap stocks get cheaper after this kind of print — wait for capitulation rather than catching the falling knife.
Next earnings
Wed, Jul 29 · consensus EPS $-0.48 · last actual $-2.40
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P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.84
EPS Growth
N/A
Revenue Growth
-8.6%
Debt / Equity
0.10
Net Cash / Share
$-6.01
Return on Equity
-18.6%
Gross Margin
21.5%
Operating Margin
-15.8%
FCF / Share
$-5.01
Current Ratio
1.84
ROE > 20% is -18.6% — fails "> 20.0%".
Within 15% of 52-wk high is -22.6% — fails "> -15.0%".
Trades materially below the fair-value range — historically a tailwind for forward returns.
Returns are sub-cost-of-capital; quality bar not met.
Capital structure is unremarkable — neither a stress nor a tailwind.
Price has been weak — momentum is a headwind.
Insiders and / or superinvestors are accumulating — informed-money tailwind.
Recent miss and / or risk patterns weigh on the catalyst path.
Among 95 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 48% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -0.8% / yr.
ROE -19% · Op margin -16%
D/E 0.10 · CR 1.84
3 insiders buying
2 tracked holders · peak 27.1%
2.11% yield
16% through 52w range
EPS — · Rev -9%
Already-thin margins compress further on input-cost or pricing pressure; revenue softens; the market questions whether the current earnings power is structural or one-off. Multi-year drawdown plausible.
| — |
| 11.0% |
Institutional Own.
59.2%
Insider Own.
32.3%
Dividend Yield
2.11%
Book Value / Share
$72.00
Superinvestor ownership
Held by 2 tracked superinvestors · peak weight 9.8%
Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.