
A high-quality large-cap compounder trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.
Mkt Cap
$88.20B
P/E
—
PEG
2.19
P/B
8.86
Dividend
1.60%
ROE
29.9%
About the business
Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, recovery facility, or disposal site; owns and operates transfer stations; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities that produce renewable electricity and renewable natural gas. It also operates materials processing and commodities recycling services, including cardboard, paper, glass, metals, plastics, construction and demolition materials, and other recycling commodities are recovered for resale or redirected for other purposes; markets and resells recycling commodities; recycling brokerage services, such as managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and other strategic business solutions. In addition, the company collects recyclable food and yard waste, as well as markets and sells mulch, compost, soil amendments, and renewable energy; offers remediation and construction, and industrial waste services; and manages and markets fly ash. Further, it provides Regulated Waste and Compliance Services (RWCS), which offers compliance programs, as well as collection, processing, and disposal of regulated and specialized waste, including medical, pharmaceutical, and hazardous waste; and Secure Information Destruction (SID) services that include the collection of personal and confidential information for secure destruction and recycling of sorted office paper. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Who would buy WM?
Consensus 12/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.
Endorses
· 1 frameworkROE > 20% 29.9% clears "> 20.0%".
Rejects
· 3 frameworksPEG < 1 (growth at a discount) is 2.19× — fails "< 1.00×".
12 insiders sold $23.3M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 63,812 shares.
In Prism's context
Insider selling on a mature quality name is often compensation-driven and should not over-rotate a thesis built on durable cash flows — though concentrated discretionary selling is always worth flagging.
| Insider | Role | Type | Date | Shares | Avg price | Value | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REED DAVID L. | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 9, 2026 | 75 | $245.25 | $18K | Direct |
| CARROLL JOHN A | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 9, 2026 | 47 | $245.30 | $12K | Direct |
| DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER P | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 9, 2026 | 61 | $245.51 | $15K | Direct |
| VARKEY JOHNSON | Chief Technology Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 9, 2026 | 121 | $245.26 | $30K | Direct |
| MORRIS JOHN J JR. | President | Open-market sell | Mar 9, 2026 | 4,211 | $243.38 | $1.02M | Direct |
| MORRIS JOHN J JR. | President | Option exercise | Mar 9, 2026 | 5,484 | $150.12 | $823K | Direct |
| MORRIS JOHN J JR. | President | Open-market sell | Mar 6, 2026 | 7,979 | $245.07 | $1.96M | Direct |
| VARKEY JOHNSON | Chief Technology Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 3, 2026 | 617 | $244.13 | $151K | Direct |
| CARROLL JOHN A | Officer | Award / grant | Mar 3, 2026 | 892 | $0.00 | $0 | Direct |
| WATSON MICHAEL J. | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 17,251 | $241.81 | $4.17M | Direct |
| HEMMER TARA J | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 4,818 | $241.83 | $1.17M | Direct |
| STITH KIMBERLY G. | Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 21 | $243.14 | $5K | Direct |
| REED DAVID L. | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Mar 2, 2026 | 21 | $242.67 | $5K | Direct |
| WATSON MICHAEL J. | Officer | Option exercise | Mar 2, 2026 | 12,642 | $126.00 | $1.59M | Direct |
| REED DAVID L. | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 26, 2026 | 37 | $229.68 | $8K | Direct |
| CARROLL JOHN A | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 26, 2026 | 37 | $229.49 | $8K | Direct |
| SMITH DONALD J | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 17, 2026 | 12,194 | $233.48 | $2.85M | Direct |
| SMITH DONALD J | Officer | Option exercise | Feb 17, 2026 | 4,842 | $118.55 | $574K | Direct |
| CARRASCO RAFAEL | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 13, 2026 | 7,352 | $234.50 | $1.72M | Direct |
| CARROLL JOHN A | Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 11, 2026 | 1,021 | $234.71 | $240K | Direct |
| FISH JAMES C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sell | Feb 10, 2026 | 36,753 | $230.43 | $8.47M | Direct |
| WATSON MICHAEL J. | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 30, 2026 | 687 | $219.79 | $151K | Direct |
| HEMMER TARA J | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 30, 2026 | 690 | $219.70 | $152K | Direct |
| REED DAVID L. | Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 30, 2026 | 270 | $218.62 | $59K | Direct |
| SMITH DONALD J | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 30, 2026 | 690 | $219.59 | $152K | Direct |
| CARROLL JOHN A | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 30, 2026 | 220 | $219.57 | $48K | Direct |
| DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER P | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 30, 2026 | 215 | $218.85 | $47K | Direct |
| VARKEY JOHNSON | Chief Technology Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 30, 2026 | 428 | $219.64 | $94K | Direct |
| STITH KIMBERLY G. | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 30, 2026 | 157 | $219.65 | $34K | Direct |
| CARRASCO RAFAEL | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 30, 2026 | 690 | $219.01 | $151K | Direct |
| BOETTCHER CHARLES C | Officer | Open-market sell | Jan 30, 2026 | 689 | $219.32 | $151K | Direct |
| MORRIS JOHN J JR. | President | Open-market sell | Jan 30, 2026 | 690 | $219.49 | $151K | Direct |
| CARROLL JOHN A | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 29, 2026 | 1,392 | $226.41 | $315K | Direct |
| DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER P | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 29, 2026 | 1,373 | $226.41 | $311K | Direct |
| VARKEY JOHNSON | Chief Technology Officer | Award / grant | Jan 29, 2026 | 2,746 | $226.41 | $622K | Direct |
| STITH KIMBERLY G. | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 29, 2026 | 1,006 | $226.41 | $228K | Direct |
| REED DAVID L. | Chief Financial Officer | Award / grant | Jan 29, 2026 | 1,717 | $226.41 | $389K | Direct |
| CARRASCO RAFAEL | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 29, 2026 | 12,208 | $226.41 | $2.76M | Direct |
| SMITH DONALD J | Officer | Award / grant | Jan 29, 2026 | 12,208 | $226.41 | $2.76M | Direct |
| FISH JAMES C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Award / grant | Jan 29, 2026 | 59,516 | $226.41 | $13.48M | Direct |
Showing 40 of 46 matching transactions.
Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.3% of shares outstanding.
Net 6M: +63,812 sh
Price history
Drag across the chart to select a custom period — all analysis below refocuses to that window.
Add Waste Management, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:
Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.
How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.
Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.
Portfolio analytics are part of the member experience.
Sign in to run this simulationWM: 41% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (low confidence). Strongest support: ROE 30%. Main risk to monitor: 101% above fair value.
Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.
Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.
P/B 8.86× · FCF yield 2.4%
101% above fair value
Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.
Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.
Business continues to compound at recent rates — 18% operating margin holds, 4% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.
Sector: Industrials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.
| Metric | WM | GCC median | MENA median | Global ex-US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | — | 15.5× | 13.0× | 16.0× |
| P/B | 8.86× | 2.00× | 1.70× | 2.40× |
| Dividend yield | 1.60% | 3.00% | 2.60% | 2.20% |
| ROE | 29.9% |
Reported EPS $1.81 vs $1.99 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 17.5%.
A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.
Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.
Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.
Next earnings
Mon, Jul 27 · consensus EPS $1.99 · last actual $1.81
P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
PEG Ratio
2.19
P/B Ratio
8.86
EPS Growth
13.3%
Revenue Growth
3.5%
Debt / Equity
2.28
Net Cash / Share
$-56.61
Return on Equity
29.9%
Gross Margin
40.6%
Operating Margin
17.5%
FCF / Share
$5.32
Current Ratio
0.93
P/B < 1.0 (below book) is 8.86× — fails "< 1.00×".
FCF Yield > 7% is 2.4% — fails "> 7.0%".
Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.
Returns and margins are healthy and consistent.
Leverage is high relative to coverage — balance-sheet risk on the table.
Price trend is unremarkable — neither tailwind nor headwind.
Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.
Recent miss and / or risk patterns weigh on the catalyst path.
Among 92 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 46% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -2.1% / yr.
ROE 30% · Op margin 18%
D/E 2.28 · CR 0.93
1 insider buying
1 tracked holder · peak 31.1%
1.60% yield + buyback runway
47% through 52w range
EPS 13% · Rev 4%
A growth-rate scare or a quarter of margin compression resets the multiple. The business is still fine, but the price was assuming a level of compounding that takes 12–24 months to re-prove.
| 11.0% |
| 10.5% |
| 12.0% |
Institutional Own.
84.3%
Insider Own.
0.3%
Dividend Yield
1.60%
Book Value / Share
$24.79
Superinvestor ownership
Held by 1 tracked superinvestor · peak weight 8.4%
Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.