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WM logo

WM

Waste Management, Inc.
IndustrialsWaste ManagementQuality
$219.63 · 15min delay
β 0.49

A high-quality large-cap compounder trading at a premium valuation. Frameworks sharply disagree on it.

Download report

52-wk low $194.1152-wk high $248.13

Mkt Cap

$88.20B

P/E

—

PEG

2.19

P/B

8.86

Dividend

1.60%

ROE

29.9%

About the business

Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, recovery facility, or disposal site; owns and operates transfer stations; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities that produce renewable electricity and renewable natural gas. It also operates materials processing and commodities recycling services, including cardboard, paper, glass, metals, plastics, construction and demolition materials, and other recycling commodities are recovered for resale or redirected for other purposes; markets and resells recycling commodities; recycling brokerage services, such as managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and other strategic business solutions. In addition, the company collects recyclable food and yard waste, as well as markets and sells mulch, compost, soil amendments, and renewable energy; offers remediation and construction, and industrial waste services; and manages and markets fly ash. Further, it provides Regulated Waste and Compliance Services (RWCS), which offers compliance programs, as well as collection, processing, and disposal of regulated and specialized waste, including medical, pharmaceutical, and hazardous waste; and Secure Information Destruction (SID) services that include the collection of personal and confidential information for secure destruction and recycling of sorted office paper. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Who would buy WM?

Consensus 12/100 · Mixed · Investors are split.

1 4 10

Endorses

· 1 framework
  • AQR / Asness· Quality Factor86/100

    ROE > 20% 29.9% clears "> 20.0%".

Rejects

· 3 frameworks
  • Peter Lynch· Lynch GARP0/100

    PEG < 1 (growth at a discount) is 2.19× — fails "< 1.00×".

  • Walter Schloss
Insider activity · Negative

Insider selling outweighs buying

Strength 70/100

12 insiders sold $23.3M on a discretionary basis. Discretionary selling carries more signal than planned disposals, but insiders sell for many non-thesis reasons (taxes, diversification, life events) — do not over-read it. Over the 6M window, insiders are net buyers by 63,812 shares.

In Prism's context

Insider selling on a mature quality name is often compensation-driven and should not over-rotate a thesis built on durable cash flows — though concentrated discretionary selling is always worth flagging.

InsiderRoleTypeDateSharesAvg priceValueOwn
REED DAVID L.Chief Financial OfficerOpen-market sellMar 9, 202675$245.25$18KDirect
CARROLL JOHN AOfficerOpen-market sellMar 9, 202647$245.30$12KDirect
DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER POfficerOpen-market sellMar 9, 202661$245.51$15KDirect
VARKEY JOHNSONChief Technology OfficerOpen-market sellMar 9, 2026121$245.26$30KDirect
MORRIS JOHN J JR.PresidentOpen-market sellMar 9, 20264,211$243.38$1.02MDirect
MORRIS JOHN J JR.PresidentOption exerciseMar 9, 20265,484$150.12$823KDirect
MORRIS JOHN J JR.PresidentOpen-market sellMar 6, 20267,979$245.07$1.96MDirect
VARKEY JOHNSONChief Technology OfficerOpen-market sellMar 3, 2026617$244.13$151KDirect
CARROLL JOHN AOfficerAward / grantMar 3, 2026892$0.00$0Direct
WATSON MICHAEL J.OfficerOpen-market sellMar 2, 202617,251$241.81$4.17MDirect
HEMMER TARA JOfficerOpen-market sellMar 2, 20264,818$241.83$1.17MDirect
STITH KIMBERLY G.OfficerOpen-market sellMar 2, 202621$243.14$5KDirect
REED DAVID L.Chief Financial OfficerOpen-market sellMar 2, 202621$242.67$5KDirect
WATSON MICHAEL J.OfficerOption exerciseMar 2, 202612,642$126.00$1.59MDirect
REED DAVID L.Chief Financial OfficerOpen-market sellFeb 26, 202637$229.68$8KDirect
CARROLL JOHN AOfficerOpen-market sellFeb 26, 202637$229.49$8KDirect
SMITH DONALD JOfficerOpen-market sellFeb 17, 202612,194$233.48$2.85MDirect
SMITH DONALD JOfficerOption exerciseFeb 17, 20264,842$118.55$574KDirect
CARRASCO RAFAELOfficerOpen-market sellFeb 13, 20267,352$234.50$1.72MDirect
CARROLL JOHN AOfficerOpen-market sellFeb 11, 20261,021$234.71$240KDirect
FISH JAMES C JRChief Executive OfficerOpen-market sellFeb 10, 202636,753$230.43$8.47MDirect
WATSON MICHAEL J.OfficerOpen-market sellJan 30, 2026687$219.79$151KDirect
HEMMER TARA JOfficerOpen-market sellJan 30, 2026690$219.70$152KDirect
REED DAVID L.Chief Financial OfficerOpen-market sellJan 30, 2026270$218.62$59KDirect
SMITH DONALD JOfficerOpen-market sellJan 30, 2026690$219.59$152KDirect
CARROLL JOHN AOfficerOpen-market sellJan 30, 2026220$219.57$48KDirect
DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER POfficerOpen-market sellJan 30, 2026215$218.85$47KDirect
VARKEY JOHNSONChief Technology OfficerOpen-market sellJan 30, 2026428$219.64$94KDirect
STITH KIMBERLY G.OfficerOpen-market sellJan 30, 2026157$219.65$34KDirect
CARRASCO RAFAELOfficerOpen-market sellJan 30, 2026690$219.01$151KDirect
BOETTCHER CHARLES COfficerOpen-market sellJan 30, 2026689$219.32$151KDirect
MORRIS JOHN J JR.PresidentOpen-market sellJan 30, 2026690$219.49$151KDirect
CARROLL JOHN AOfficerAward / grantJan 29, 20261,392$226.41$315KDirect
DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER POfficerAward / grantJan 29, 20261,373$226.41$311KDirect
VARKEY JOHNSONChief Technology OfficerAward / grantJan 29, 20262,746$226.41$622KDirect
STITH KIMBERLY G.OfficerAward / grantJan 29, 20261,006$226.41$228KDirect
REED DAVID L.Chief Financial OfficerAward / grantJan 29, 20261,717$226.41$389KDirect
CARRASCO RAFAELOfficerAward / grantJan 29, 202612,208$226.41$2.76MDirect
SMITH DONALD JOfficerAward / grantJan 29, 202612,208$226.41$2.76MDirect
FISH JAMES C JRChief Executive OfficerAward / grantJan 29, 202659,516$226.41$13.48MDirect

Showing 40 of 46 matching transactions.

Insider activity from Yahoo Finance (quoteSummary: insiderTransactions + netSharePurchaseActivity). Cached 6 hours. · Insiders hold 0.3% of shares outstanding.

Net 6M: +63,812 sh

Price history

—
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What would WM do to your portfolio?

Add Waste Management, Inc. at a hypothetical weight and Prism recalculates your whole book:

Risk metrics

Sharpe, Sortino, volatility, max drawdown, beta — before and after.

Sector concentration

How much this shifts your top sector weight and overall diversification.

Archetype tilt

Whether this leans your book more toward Quality, Value, Growth, Deep Value, Income, or Momentum.

WM is currently tagged:QualityFails criteria (12/100)

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Probabilistic recommendation· rec-v1.0.0-2026-04

Waste Management, Inc. · WM

WM: 41% estimated probability of outperforming over the next 12M window. 1 of 6 signal families negative (low confidence). Strongest support: ROE 30%. Main risk to monitor: 101% above fair value.

Outperform prob.
41%
vs S&P 500 · 12M
low confidence
Expected return
-6.4% → +17.6%
mid +5.6% / yr
Downside (p20)
-12.9%
stress -25.9%
Data quality
98/100
Excellent
Prism Score

Probabilistic research output, not financial advice. Prism recommendations are based on available data, historical relationships, and model assumptions. They do not guarantee future returns. Conduct independent due diligence before any investment decision.

Backtested and similar-setup statistics may be affected by survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, overfitting, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and data limitations. Probability estimates are anchored heuristics — not validated forecasts — until the walk-forward backtest pipeline is in place.

Prism Score

Composite 38/100. Strongest contribution from quality; weakest from valuation. Risk patterns shaved 6 points off the composite.

Composite
38
/ 100
Stretched
Deep valueval.
29/ 100

P/B 8.86× · FCF yield 2.4%

Margin of safetyval.
0/ 100

101% above fair value

Bull · base · bear scenarios

Three plausible paths over a 5-year horizon.

Indicative only. Probabilities are model-implied weights for stress-testing — not forecasts.

Bull
~25%
$141.93
-8.4% / yr (5y)

Operating leverage kicks in or a new product line scales — margins inflect higher, growth steps up by 200–400 bps, and the multiple re-rates as the durability becomes obvious to a wider audience.

Drivers
  • • Margin expands by 200–400 bps from 18%
  • • Top-line accelerates 300–500 bps above current
  • • Multiple re-rates one full turn higher
Base
~55%
$109.17
-13.0% / yr (5y)

Business continues to compound at recent rates — 18% operating margin holds, 4% top-line growth persists, capital allocation stays disciplined. Multiple stays roughly where it is.

Global value comparison

Waste Management, Inc. vs sector medians — GCC, MENA, and Global ex-US.

Sector: Industrials. MENA-aware investors can sanity-check whether the US name is offering value relative to regional peers.

MetricWMGCC medianMENA medianGlobal ex-US
P/E (TTM)—15.5×13.0×16.0×
P/B8.86×2.00×1.70×2.40×
Dividend yield1.60%3.00%2.60%2.20%
ROE29.9%
Earnings reaction explainer

WM missed by -9.2%.

Miss· -9.2%

Reported EPS $1.81 vs $1.99 expected — a manageable miss. Whether it matters depends on cause: input-cost pressure or one-off charges shrug off; demand softness compounds. Trailing operating margin: 17.5%.

  • Quality investorsNegative

    A miss without a clear one-off cause raises questions about the durability of the margin structure.

  • Growth investorsNegative

    Decelerating growth + a miss is the pattern that resets multiples — even a small miss matters when the prior multiple was full.

  • Value investorsNeutral

    Read the cause carefully — input costs are forgiveable, demand softness is not.

News & events

Next earnings

Mon, Jul 27 · consensus EPS $1.99 · last actual $1.81

  • WM Announces Cash Dividend

    Business Wire · just now

  • VEOEY vs. WM: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?

    Zacks · just now

  • What Kamikaze Dolphins Mean for Defense Stocks—and Other News of the Weird

    Barrons.com · just now

Key Metrics at a Glance

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/A

PEG Ratio

2.19

P/B Ratio

8.86

EPS Growth

13.3%

Revenue Growth

3.5%

Debt / Equity

2.28

Net Cash / Share

$-56.61

Return on Equity

29.9%

Gross Margin

40.6%

Operating Margin

17.5%

FCF / Share

$5.32

Current Ratio

0.93

· Schloss Deep Value
0/100

P/B < 1.0 (below book) is 8.86× — fails "< 1.00×".

  • Seth Klarman· Klarman Margin of Safety0/100

    FCF Yield > 7% is 2.4% — fails "> 7.0%".

  • See the full rule-by-rule drill-down below
    38/100
    Low agreement
    Signal families · 1 of 6 signal families negative
    Agreement: Low
    • Valuationnegative

      Trades meaningfully above the fair-value range — limited margin of safety.

      101% above fair valueReverse DCF: priced for perfection
      10
      /100
    • Qualitypositive

      Returns and margins are healthy and consistent.

      ROE 30%
      65
      /100
    • Balance sheetnegative

      Leverage is high relative to coverage — balance-sheet risk on the table.

      D/E 2.28 (heavy)CR 0.93 (tight)
      28
      /100
    • Momentumneutral

      Price trend is unremarkable — neither tailwind nor headwind.

      50
      /100
    • Behaviouralneutral

      Behavioural read is mixed — some accumulation, some distribution.

      Insider buying ($393k)Net insider selling ($23.4M)1 tracked holders · peak 31.1%
      50
      /100
    • Catalysts & eventsnegative

      Recent miss and / or risk patterns weigh on the catalyst path.

      EPS miss (-9%)1 high-severity flag
      24
      /100
    Positive drivers
    • • ROE 30%
    Key risks
    • • 101% above fair value
    • • Reverse DCF: priced for perfection
    • • D/E 2.28 (heavy)
    • • CR 0.93 (tight)
    • • EPS miss (-9%)
    • • Balance-sheet leverage is meaningful
    • • Possible quality trap (paying up)
    Suggested diligence questions
    • 1. Debt maturity wall
    • 2. Multiple compression
    Similar historical setups[MOCK DATA]

    Among 92 historical setups with similar Prism Score and signal-agreement profiles, 46% beat the benchmark over the next 12 months, with average excess return of -2.1% / yr.

    Probabilistic research output — not financial advice.
    View full thesis
    Quality20%
    74/ 100

    ROE 30% · Op margin 18%

    Balance sheet15%
    39/ 100

    D/E 2.28 · CR 0.93

    Insider convictionown.
    69/ 100

    1 insider buying

    Superinvestorown.
    79/ 100

    1 tracked holder · peak 31.1%

    Shareholder yield10%
    53/ 100

    1.60% yield + buyback runway

    Momentum5%
    58/ 100

    47% through 52w range

    Growth5%
    60/ 100

    EPS 13% · Rev 4%

    Risk deduction: 2 patterns flagged · balance-sheet leverage is meaningful. 6 points removed from composite.

    Designed to surface potentially attractive characteristics — descriptive, not prescriptive. For research and educational purposes only.

    Customise weights
    Drivers
    • • Revenue growth holds near 4%
    • • Operating margin stays around 18%
    • • Capital returns continue at current cadence
    Bear
    ~20%
    $81.88
    -17.9% / yr (5y)

    A growth-rate scare or a quarter of margin compression resets the multiple. The business is still fine, but the price was assuming a level of compounding that takes 12–24 months to re-prove.

    Drivers
    • • Growth decelerates by ~300 bps for two consecutive quarters
    • • Refinancing at higher rates pressures interest coverage
    • • Sentiment de-rates the name to a deeper-value multiple
    Indicative weights
    11.0%
    10.5%
    12.0%

    Editorial dataset · as of 2024-12-31. Sector medians are hand-maintained from public Tadawul / ADX / DFM / QSE / EGX disclosures and indicative Global ex-US references. Live licensed data is on the roadmap. For research and educational purposes only.

    What to watch on the next print
    • • Management explanation of cause — one-off vs structural
    • • Analyst-revision direction over the next 1-2 weeks
    • • Interest coverage and debt maturity wall
  • IT Q1 Earnings Beat on Contract Value Growth & Cost Control

    Zacks · just now

  • Here's Why We Think Waste Management (NYSE:WM) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

    Simply Wall St. · just now

  • Waste Management Q1 Earnings Call Highlights

    MarketBeat · just now

  • Institutional Own.

    84.3%

    Insider Own.

    0.3%

    Dividend Yield

    1.60%

    Book Value / Share

    $24.79

    Superinvestor ownership

    Held by 1 tracked superinvestor · peak weight 8.4%

    Grand Portfolio
    • Bill Gates (Foundation Trust)

      Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust · Q4 2025

      8.4%

    Weights reflect each investor's latest 13F or factsheet snapshot. Data lags real time by 45+ days.